Shin Kikuchi

I am a PhD student at MIT Economics.

My research interests are macroeconomics, international trade, and political economy.

Links/PDF: Email, CV


“Decomposing the Rise of the Populist Radical Right” [Download PDF]
with Oren Danieli, Noam Gidron, and Ro’ee Levy
Last Updated, Mar. 2023

Abstract Support for populist radical right parties in Europe has dramatically increased in the twenty-first century. We decompose the rise of the populist radical right between 2005 and 2020 into four components: changes in party positions, changes in voter attributes (demographics and opinions), changes in voters' priorities, and a residual. We merge two wide data sets on party positions and voter attributes and estimate voter priorities using a probabilistic voting model. We find that shifts in party positions and changes in voter attributes explain only a negligible part of the rise of populist radical right parties. The primary driver behind the success of these parties lies in voters' changing priorities. Particularly, voters are less likely to decide which party to support based on parties' economic positions. Instead, voters---mainly older, non-unionized, low-educated men---increasingly prioritize nativist cultural issues. This allows populist radical right parties to tap into a pre-existing reservoir of culturally conservative voters.

“Welfare Effects of Polarization: Occupational Mobility over the Life-cycle” [Download PDF]
with Sagiri Kitao
Last Updated, July 2020

Abstract What are the welfare effects of polarization: wage and employment losses of middle-class workers relative to low- and high-skill groups? We build a model of overlapping generations who choose consumption, savings, labor supply, and occupations over their life-cycles, and accumulate human capital. We simulate a wage shift observed since the early 1980s and investigate individuals’ responses. Polarization improves welfare of young individuals that are high-skilled, while it hurts low-skilled individuals across all ages and especially younger ones. The gain of the high-skilled is larger for generations entering in later periods, who can fully exploit the rising skill premium.


“Automation and Comparative Advantage”
Presented at Keio (Oct. 2022), Canon Global Institute (Dec. 2022), Columbia (Feb. 2023), Osaka (Apr. 2023)

“Automation, Labor Share, and Concentration”
Presented at NBER Japan Meeting (Aug. 2023, scheduled)

“Granular Origins of Labor Market Pooling”
with Daniel G O’Connor
Presented at Dartmouth (Mar. 2023), Hitotsubashi (May 2023)

“Geography of Business Interactions: Evidence from Business Card Exchange Data”
with Shota Komatsu, Juan Martínez, Kentaro Nakajima, Takanori Nishida, Kensuke Teshima, Junichi Yamasaki
Presented at Tohoku (Feb., May 2023), UTokyo (June 2023, scheduled), Kyoto Applied Econ (July 2023, scheduled)